STATFlash: How will COVID-19 impact SD-WAN?

Vertical Systems Group lowers revenue growth forecast to 17% for 2020 and projects a rebound in 2021 for Managed SD-WAN Services

BOSTON, MA, May 28, 2020 – Following a triple-digit revenue increase in 2019 for U.S. Carrier Managed SD-WAN Services, the growth outlook for 2020 has been lowered to 17% due to the impact of COVID-19, according to ENS @SD-WAN research just released from Vertical Systems Group. Despite this market dip, the forecast shows measurable economic recovery during Q4 of this year, and a revenue rebound starting in 2021 that extends through 2024.

Vertical’s SD-WAN forecast incorporates government directives, macro-economic data, enterprise demand information and service provider feedback. Topline forecast assumptions are displayed in the timeline infographic shown above. Detailed timeline assumptions for this COVID-19 impact analysis are included in the latest ENS @SD-WAN research release, which covers projections through 2024 for U.S. revenue, billable sites installed and WAN connections.

Key 2020 Timeline Assumptions

  • January – February: The robust demand for managed SD-WAN services in 2019 continues into the first two months of 2020. New customer installations increase as orders from the previous year are fulfilled.
  • March – April: The COVID-19 pandemic emerges across the U.S., forcing business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders. Some planned SD-WAN implementations are deferred.
  • May – August: Gradual reopening of businesses proceeds subject to variable state-by-state guidelines. Some companies file for bankruptcy, particularly in hard hit verticals (e.g., retail, travel, etc.). The SD-WAN pipeline for new logo sales erodes.
  • September – October: Enterprises and suppliers adjust to new operations realities. An economic rebound begins to take hold.
  • November – December: Economic recovery gains momentum. SD-WAN sales increase and site installations accelerate.

@SD-WAN is available now exclusively to ENS Research Program subscribers. This in-depth research on Carrier Managed SD-WAN services focuses on market drivers, service migration, market sizing, site configurations, WAN access connectivity, market shares by service provider, and more. Research Topics provide analysis backed with detailed market data, tables, charts and infographics.

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